I’ve always been curious about how people ramp up quickly on an industry and form a perspective in the midst ambiguity, especially with new technologies such as crypto or self-driving cars. They connect all these seemingly disparate datapoints, taking you on a journey where they see something others do not see. Then, translate that into some actionable insight and take people on the journey with them – from starting a new company, launching a new product, getting a new job as a PM or expanding their scope as a PM.
This is a very helpful post for crafting vision and doing Needle moving work. However I felt that the example/steps you've taken to decompose a new area and predict its future could've been more explicit and clear. Can you share a more detailed example, which covers the actual notes you've taken during all these stages to finally converge into a vision doc (please also share this doc)? That, would make things very clear